Author(s): Patrik Groma, Ľudmila Nagyová, Peter Obtulovič, Zdenka Kádeková
Title: Development of Advertising Spending in Slovakia
Source: International Scientific Days 2018 :: Towards Productive, Sustainable and Resilient Global Agriculture and Food Systems :: Proceedings
ISBN: 978-80-7598-180-6
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15414/isd2018.s2-3.04
Publisher: Wolters Kluwer ČR, Prague
PY, pages: 2018, 609-623
Published on-line: 2018-11-09
Language: eng
Abstract: Advertising, as one of the communication mix tools, can be considered as the most visible but also the most discussed tool. Many perceive advertising as an unwanted component of everyday life. On the other hand, the creation and examination of this phenomenon involved too much effort and time so that it could be simply disheartened and displaced. The submitted paper presents the results of the survey on
development of advertising spending in Slovakia. In paper is analyzed a total of seven time series of advertising spending by media type. We calculated 582 different models for all analyzed spending timelines, from which had been model
MAPE chosen as the most suitable one. The main objective of the presented paper is the usability of adaptive approaches to modeling the development of time series empirically verified on a set of monthly time series of advertising spending
by media mix for the years 2005 to 2017 and their prognosis from January 2018 to December 2019. Almost all time series had very complex and irregular course with a lot of fluctuations. The quality of the forecasts was judged by the average
relative error predicted by MAPE. Winters´ method used in the paper is a generalization of the exponential equalization method which, in addition to the trend component Tt, also covers the seasonal component St. Developments of advertising
spending in TV very responsively respond to the economic situation in Slovakia when it grew during the period until mid-2009, and its downward trend occurred in the crisis period (2009 and early 2010). From this period until December 2017,
spending has grown, but at a much slower pace than in the first period until 2009. We can expect to see a moderately rising expenditure as calculated from the projected forecast in the period (January 2018 to December 2019). Total
advertising spending in the pre-crisis period increased with periodic fluctuations until October 2008. During the crisis, 2009 to 2010 saw a significant reduction in total expenditure. However, the periodic fluctuation is similar to the
previous period and is also significant in the next period until the end of 2017. After the crisis, growth in spending has not reached the growth rate with pre-crisis times. In the construction of the forecast, we expected a slight increase
with the maintenance of periodic fluctuations.
Keywords: Advertising Spending, Prognosis of Development, Analysis of Time Series
JEL Classification: M31, M32, M39
Rights:Open Access :: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 4.0 International Licence
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